* A reminder to all players on the percentages of winning a game in terms of the number of points in your side.

* Statistics and bridge - Hand Evaluation. By Bernard CHARLES and Jerome GIGAULT

 

 

  22 HCP 23 HCP 24 HCP 25 HCP
2 NT 52% 65% 76% 85%
3 NT 23% 35% 47% 60%

 

  24 DH * 25 DH * 26 DH * 27 DH *
4 major
20% 29%  41% 53%

 

  22 DH * 23 DH * 24 DH * 25 DH *
 2 major
68% 78% 86% 92%
 3 major
32%  43% 55% 67%

 

The account of DH * points is the classic DH account with some corrections. Please follow 1 major opening raise

The more important one is to upgrade the Ace and downgrade the other honors especially Q or J doubleton.

Consider the classic DH account is very satisfying for all hands that follow because these hands are (semi) balanced with 8th fit.

 

A first observation: when you have a 5-3 or 4-4 major fit with semi-balanced hands and 24 HCP, it is best to play 3NT rather than 4 in the major. Indeed, even with a doubleton in each side you have only 26 DH and 4 major contract (41%) is worse than 3NT (48%). This is even more true when you have small honors that must be downgraded in a suit contract (DH * points).

 

For a more detailed analysis, follow ODDS where the question arises :

in matchplay, what should the responder do in the sequence 1m   1M    2M?  

Should he pass or made a game try with 12 DH? The following study contradicts what is usually admitted. Always pass whatever vulnerability.

Why this error? Of course when you play the game, the opener being maximum, you are potentially winner because the game bonus (particularly vulnerable) outweighs the discount of defeat. However, when you stop at  the 3-level, the opener being minimum, you are inevitably loser when you are defeated. Now you play more often at 3-level than at 4-level and  the average  calculation shows that you are winner to always pass.

 

 

Deal 1

Thank you Mr. Roudi (NESCO) to be able to stop at 2-level.

12 DH + 11 DH * = 23 DH

to the 2-level,             success rate : 78%

to the 3-level,             success rate : 43%

Only 11 * DH  because you have to downgrade the profusion of small honors when playing a suit contract.

 

I present you now 9  deals mistreated in all systems based on best minor or related.

You play at the 3-level after a failed attempt to game or you are too high at 4-level or you play two when you have to play the game.


Deal 2

Same deal as No. 1 (the Jack of swapped) and yet a different contract!

Help! Is there a pilot on the plane!

12 DH* + 11 DH = 23 DH                  success rate: 43%

if you could play at the 2-level        success rate : 78%


 

 

 


Deal 3(responder's hand)

 12 DH + 12-13 DH = 24-25 DH              success rate : 61%

If you could play at the 2-level :            success rate : 89%

Still too high!


Deal 4(responder's hand)

 If you rebid 3♠ and partner pass :

12 DH + 12-13 DH = 24-25 DH              success rate : 61%

il you could play at the 2-level :         success rate : 89%


Deal 5

If you rebid 3 it's optimistic

16 DH + 5 DH = 21 DH  %             Success rate : not rated

and if you rebid 2 it's an imprecise range : 12-16 DH.

and if you could play 1 !!


Deal 6(responder's hand)

5-10 DH to bid 2 . A range of 6 possible values.

17 DH + 5 DH = 22 DH,  it might miss a lot if you raise.

So what to do ... If you believe in your gift of clairvoyance ...


Deal 7(responder's hand)

You would have passed with the previous hand? Missed, you had to continue!

You'd have continue, missed if the responder has not the ♣King!


Deal 8

 18 DH + 5 DH = 23 DH                          success rate : not rated

if you could play the 3-level             success rate :  43%

or the 1-level!                                        success rate : 96%


Deal 9

You open this hand even when vulnerable. You are right because you will find a major fit 2 times out of 3.

But does your system allow you to stop out of game when your partner is 12-13 HCP.

Otherwise, you could play 2NT with only 22 HCP or 3 in the major  with only 23 DH.


Deal 10

On  a minor opening you answer 1♠ and on 1NT rebid  you justly rebid 2.

But if the opener has doubleton ace of spades and a four cards support in heart by the ace he will pass (only 8pts) and yet the game is already 35%!

Why this? Because  the 9th fit and the singleton passed your hand in the higher category.

If the opener has 3 hearts and 2 spades cards he will rebid 2♠. This is no longer the right contract.

 

 

 

Only the hand N° 1 is well treated in STANDARD.

 In case of major fit 4-4 or 5-3 , bad evaluation of strenghts make you prospect the 3-level for invitational hands : you have to pay to see ...

 And worse, you can play a major game with only 23 DH *.

 So there are gaps in the system that must be resolved.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

THE SOLUTIONS

 

The best minor opening : what's the use?

 

When you have a balanced hand this is not the time to show your longest or best minor. Indeed, this is the major fit that will be first searched. If  a major contract has to be played it's not the  best minor that will help you. Rather, it will help the opponents to find the good lead or to avoid the bad one. In MAJEURE SECURISEE we'll see that in case of major fit opener  will always play from his hand.

If there is no major fit and if the responder has no singleton xNT will be played. Again, there is no interest in opening the best minor, if not to help the opponent side. And if responder has an unbalanced hand with a shortage or (and) slam ambitions, it will be up to him to learn about what you have in  minors.

This is exactly what happens after opening 1NT. Responder seeks a major fit with STAYMAN or TEXAS. He bids minor only if he has a shortage or(and) slam ambitions.

Opening the best minor is like answering a question that probably will not ever be put! (80% of contracts are played in Major or NT).

In the same vein : your partner opens 1 ♠ and you have the following hand : ♠ V9     ♥ RD92     AD102      ♣ V53.

If opener is 5♠-3-3-2 or 5♠-4m-2-2 it's 3NT to play. Indeed, even if the opener is 5♠-4-2-2 you probably will not have the means to play 5 . Do not respond 2 (the opponent might have already selected the diamond lead with V10xx!). By responding 2♣, you expect to know if your partner has 4 hearts or a balanced hand before worrying to announce your minor forces. But be careful, you have to play the 2♣ SAUVET and openings of 2 MAJOR FANTUNES otherwise you may have some trouble later.

In the MAJEURE SECURISEE , all balanced hands 12-14 or 18-20 HCP are opened 1 ♣, regardless of the number of minor cards. By playing TRANSFER, the opener is often the one who plays the contract. This is the responder that will direct the sequence. The opener often plays the contract, which is already a STATISTICAL advantage, especially with hand of 18-20 HCP. The opponent's play is more difficult, both at the lead and during the course of the game, since opener's hand is hidden having not disclosed his best minor.

Play the MAJEURE SECURISEE , you open systematically 1♣ with balanced hands and 1 unbalanced hands.

 

 

We open 1♣ all balanced hands 12-14 or 18- 20 - HCP (except 5-3-3-2, 17 +-19 HCP which is opened 1 ).

We also open the hands of 11 HCP with two major 4-4 and also the hands of 11 HCP  not vul with 3-3 in major or 4 ♠ (rule of 15 somehow). More hands are opened.

We transfer for the major (even fourth). This saves a level for major fits which is a huge advantage and will solve all the above problems. So we can respond with only 3-4 HCP without compromising the security level. You can play at the 1-level with as much as 19 HCP facing 3-4 HCP! More security.

With weak 5♠-5 (maximum 9HCP) we respond 1(TRANSFER for hearts) . This response may seem contrary to what is taught in books and yet ...

The opening of 1 is unbalanced natural (except 5-3-3-2 17 +-19 H ). More precision immediatly.

 

But, you will say, we do not know the opener's best minor.

If at least this information was useful for the responder.

Now, 80% of contracts end in Major or NT. If you have a balanced hand, it's only the partner who can decide to prospect a minor contract because he has a long minor or a shortage or he thinks of slam.

Why open  one day 1♣ with      ♠ D962      R96     ARD     ♣ 652 and another day 1 with   D96     R96    6542    ♣ AR5.

This is more "misleading" than anything else. Besides, I know a player who occasionally ventures to open  the "worst" minor with good results and never bad. I mention it knowingly. !

 

Let's turn to the side of the defense. Opening 1♣ with 2 cards and 4 or 5 diamonds makes take out double much less efficient, especially from  N° 4. TRANSFER response system makes that the opener will often play.  Still no information on the minors for the opponents.

Opening 1♣ is the most valuable openings for it  leaves more space for developments to follow. We must therefore make it the most common. This is the case in the MAJEURE SECURISEE.

And if it makes opening 1 more clearer do not hesitate.

 


Here are the solutions to the above problems, in order to better understand the MAJEURE SECURISEE.

DEAL 3              

1 ♣                  1 (4+ )

2 = 12-13 DH (zone 1-)

 

1 ♣                 1 (4+ )

1 then 2 = 14-15 DH (zone 1+)

 

 

DEAL 8                

1 ♣                 1 (4+ )

3 = 19-20 DH(zone 3) . With 18 DH 4-3-3-3 only bid  1 .

 

 

DEAL 5

1 ♣                 1 (4+ )

1 = 14-18 DH with 4 cards (zone 1+ or zone 2).

If responder PASS it was time to stop, otherwise opener will rebid  x following the sequence.

In previous sequences strength is known in a range of one point!

Here  1 response is imprecise, but this is not a problem because we are only at  1-level .

 

 

DEAL 9             

If responder transfer for a  major, a raise of the opener to the  2-level shows 12-13 DH .

If responder has no major he responds 1NT = 10 +-11 HCP (e.g : ♠ Q96      K10     AJ102     ♣ 10865) or 2NT = 12-13 - HCP

He can also respond 1♠ to show a weak hand or not suitable for xNT. (e.g : ♠ 962      A2     AJ106     ♣ QJ62)

This response system can't exceed the level of security but also choose the one who is better placed to receive the lead.

 

 

DEAL 10            

On 1♣  opening first respond 1 when your 5-5 major is weak (9 HCP maximum).

The  heart fit is immediatly found. Otherwise it will be time to bid and impose spades.

This is contrary to all standards and yet it works ...

By the way, on the opening of 1NT how do you announce a weak 5-5 majors !

 

DEAL 4

1♣                1 (4+ )

1♠                2♣

2               2♠

 

2♣ = Two way check back, invitational hands or weak in a minor,  opener usually bids 2 .

2♠ then shows an  invitational raise  11-12 DH while a jump to 3 ♠ shows 13-14 DH . An immediate jump to 3♠ show a 5-5 majors 8-9 HCP. (Remember that the opener can only have 11 HCP).

 

Last deal, allowing to set up MAJEURE SECURISEE:

You open 1♣  and you partner responds   1 (4+ )

Opener's hand : ♠ 65       AQ5       AQ102       ♣ J985

Rebid 1 .
What comfort  to give the support with 3 cards at the 1-level  and that kind of hand.

Give priority to the third fit  except perhaps with 4-3-3-3 dispersed values.

          

consequences :

 

1NT = only 2 cards in the major.

 

 

 

The Roudi is no longer necessary, the opener has denied a third fit. However, in this sequence :

 

 

2 ♣ = Roudi, 12+ DH. Often invitational in game or slam.

 

 

 

Rebids by opener :

2    = 12-15 DH , 3 cards support

2M   = 14-15 DH , 4 cards support.          

2M(other major) = 16-18 DH, 4 cards support. Unbalanced.

2NT = 18-20 HCP , 3 cards support. Balanced.  

3 ♣  = 16-18 DH, 5+-3M. Unbalanced.       

3x    = 19-20 DH, 5+ ♣-3M. Unbalanced.

 

1,1♠ raise structure

1M           2M

1M           3M

 

 

1M           2NT

 

 

1M           2♣ SAUVET

2M

 

1M            2♣ SAUVET

2           2M

 

 

1M             2♣ SAUVET

2            4M

 

 

1M            2♣ SAUVET

2           2NT RELAY

6-8 DH . 3 cards support (4-3-3-3 possible). The opener can go up to 18 DH. DEAL 6
5-8 DH.  4 cards support (not 4-3-3-3).

 

9 +DH. 4 cards support(not 4-3-3-3). Limited to 11 HCP.

 

 

either STANDARD or  9+ DH 3 cards support ( if 12+ HCP can have a longer support).

2M = 12-13 DH . The responder may pass up to 13 DH. DEAL 2

 

2 shows a non-minimum hand (nothing to do with diamond)

2M shows  3 cards support 9-11 - DH. DEAL 7

 

 

2 shows a non-minimum hand (nothing to do with ).

4M conclusion with a hand of 11+-14 DH.

 

 

2 shows a non-minimum hand.

 2/1 is not game forcing. But in this sequence it is. 

 

 

In summary, every time that almost all the tables  play 3 in the major (or 4 for too optimistic)

we only play 2 and sometimes  1 in the major!

 

 To follow: THE FOUNDATIONS OF MAJEURE SECURISEE